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Kriegsvorbereitungen gegen IRAN - War preparations against IRAN

Statut für den Internationalen Militärgerichtshof, 1945 - Artikel 6(a) Verbrechen gegen den Frieden:  
"Planen, Vorbereitung und Einleitung oder Durchführung eines Angriffskrieges oder eines Krieges unter Verletzung internationaler Verträge, Abkommen oder Zusicherungen oder Beteiligungen an einem gemeinsamen Plan oder an einer Verschwörung zur Ausführung einer der vorgenannten Handlungen;"+ Principles of the Nuremberg Tribunal, 1950

Target Iran - Timeline 2001 - 2009

  History Repeating ?...

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITTWASHINGTON — Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program. 
More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.
The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said. Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise. A spokesman for the Israeli military would say only that the country’s air force “regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.” But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes. One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.
“They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know,” the Pentagon official said. “There’s a lot of signaling going on at different levels.” Several American officials said they did not believe that the Israeli government had concluded that it must attack Iran and did not think that such a strike was imminent.
Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli defense minister who is now a deputy prime minister, warned in a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot that Israel might have no choice but to attack. “If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack,” Mr. Mofaz said in the interview published on June 6, the day after the unpublicized exercise ended. “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.” But Mr. Mofaz was criticized by other Israeli politicians as seeking to enhance his own standing as questions mount about whether the embattled Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, can hang on to power. Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that Mr. Mofaz’s statement does not represent official policy. But American officials were also told that Israel had prepared plans for striking nuclear targets in Iran and could carry them out if needed. Iran has shown signs that it is taking the Israeli warnings seriously, by beefing up its air defenses in recent weeks, including increasing air patrols. In one instance, Iran scrambled F-4 jets to double-check an Iraqi civilian flight from Baghdad to Tehran.
“They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard,” a Bush administration official said of the Iranians.
Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would confront a number of challenges. Many American experts say they believe that such an attack could delay but not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Much of the program’s infrastructure is buried under earth and concrete and installed in long tunnels or hallways, making precise targeting difficult. There is also concern that not all of the facilities have been detected. To inflict maximum damage, multiple attacks might be necessary, which many analysts say is beyond Israel’s ability at this time. But waiting also entails risks for the Israelis. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed fears that Iran will soon master the technology it needs to produce substantial quantities of highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.
Iran is also taking steps to better defend its nuclear facilities. Two sets of advance Russian-made radar systems were recently delivered to Iran. The radar will enhance Iran’s ability to detect planes flying at low altitude.Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February that Iran was close to acquiring Russian-produced SA-20 surface-to-air missiles. American military officials said that the deployment of such systems would hamper Israel’s attack planning, putting pressure on Israel to act before the missiles are fielded.
For both the United States and Israel, Iran’s nuclear program has been a persistent worry. A National Intelligence Estimate that was issued in December by American intelligence agencies asserted that Iran had suspended work on weapons design in late 2003. The report stated that it was unclear if that work had resumed. It also noted that Iran’s work on uranium enrichment and on missiles, two steps that Iran would need to take to field a nuclear weapon, had continued. In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran’s suspected work on nuclear matters was a “matter of serious concern” and that the Iranians owed the agency “substantial explanations.” Over the past three decades, Israel has carried out two unilateral attacks against suspected nuclear sites in the Middle East. In 1981, Israeli jets conducted a raid against Iraq’s nuclear plant at Osirak after concluding that it was part of Saddam Hussein’s program to develop nuclear weapons. In September, Israeli aircraft bombed a structure in Syria that American officials said housed a nuclear reactor built with the aid of North Korea. The United States protested the Israeli strike against Iraq in 1981, but its comments in recent months have amounted to an implicit endorsement of the Israeli strike in Syria. Pentagon officials said that Israel’s air forces usually conducted a major early summer training exercise, often flying over the Mediterranean or training ranges in Turkey where they practice bombing runs and aerial refueling. But the exercise this month involved a larger number of aircraft than had been previously observed, and included a lengthy combat rescue mission. Much of the planning appears to reflect a commitment by Israel’s military leaders to ensure that its armed forces are adequately equipped and trained, an imperative driven home by the difficulties the Israeli military encountered in its Lebanon operation against Hezbollah. “They rehearse it, rehearse it and rehearse it, so if they actually have to do it, they’re ready,” the Pentagon official said. “They’re not taking any options off the table.” 
Ethan Bronner contributed reporting from Jerusalem.

  • Bush 'plans Iran air strike by August' - May 28, 2008 - Asia Times Online -  By Muhammad Cohen - NEW YORK: "The George W Bush administration plans to launch an air strike against Iran within the next two months, an informed source tells Asia Times Online, echoing other reports that have surfaced in the media in the United States recently. Two key US senators briefed on the attack planned to go public with their opposition to the move, according to the source, but their projected New York Times op-ed piece has yet to appear. The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant secretary of state still active in the foreign affairs community, speaking anonymously, said last week that the US plans an air strike against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)....READ MORE>>  

  • 01.11.2007 Wie der britische Herald am Montag unter Berufung auf "militärische Quellen" berichtete, wird die US-Basis auf der Insel Diego Garcia im Indischen Ozean derzeit ausgebaut, um Vorbereitungen für einen Angriff auf den Iran zu treffen. Dabei werden weitere Hangars für Langstreckenbomber des Typs B2 "Spirit" errichtet. Seit 2001 befinden sich bereits vier Hangars für diese Maschinen auf dem Stützpunkt. Erst in der vergangenen Woche hatte AFP berichtet, daß die US-Luftwaffe knapp 88 Millionen US-Dollar beantragt hat, um die "Tarnkappenbomber" mit Haltevorrichtungen für eine neue Bombenart und den Abschluß derer Entwicklung zu finanzieren. Bei dieser Bombe handelt es sich um den 13,6 Tonnen schweren "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP, "massive Eindringmunition"), mit dem stark geschützte Bunker und Tunnel- und Höhlensysteme tief unter der Erde - bis zu einer Tiefe von etwa 30 Metern - zerstört werden sollen. Hierzu trägt die auch "Big Blu" genannte Bombe 2,7 Tonnen Sprengstoff. Am 14. März dieses Jahres hatte ein erster Versuch mit der Waffe auf dem Testgelände White Sands im US-Bundesstaat New Mexico hatte das Versuchs-Tunnelsystem nach US-Angaben vollständig zerstört - allerdings war die Bombe für den Versuch nicht auf das Ziel abgeworfen, sondern in den Tunnel gebracht und dort gezündet worden.

  • MOP im Tunnel in White Sands - Quelle US-Militär

    Daß der Test der Bombe unter diesen Bedingungen "erfolgreich" war, kann sicherlich kaum verwundern. Die Probleme im Einsatz dürften vielmehr darin liegen, daß die Bombe nach ihrem Abwurf aus möglichst großer Höhe - um so die kinetische Energie zu maximieren - das Ziel wirklich präzise trifft und es durch Felsgestein oder Beton auch erreicht. Hierfür sind außerdem genaueste Kenntnisse des zu zerstörenden Zieles notwendig, da die Waffe nur wirklich effektiv ist, wenn sie in einem Hohlraum - sprich Tunnel oder Höhle - gezündet wird. Es dürfte sich als äußerst schwierig erweisen, derart detaillierte Pläne von höchst geheimen Einrichtungen zu erlangen.Auf dem Papier handelt es sich bei der Basis auf Diego Garcia - die britisches Hoheitsgebiet ist - um britischen Besitz. Die Tatsache, daß dort etwa 50 britische und 3.200 US-Soldaten stationiert sind, macht allerdings die tatsächliche Befehlshoheit mehr als deutlich. Die Lage der Insel im Indischen Ozean prädestiniert die Insel für Einsätze von Langstreckenbombern von der rund 3,6 Kilometer langen Startbahn gegen Ziele im Mittleren Osten, wie dies bei den Kriegen gegen den Irak und Afghanistan auch geschehen ist. Darüber hinaus wurde im Frühjahr dieses Jahres bekannt, daß das US-Militär auch mit dem Ausbau des U-Boot-Hafens des Stützpunkts begonnen hat. Dies soll dazu dienen, daß dort auch Atom-U-Boote des Typs SSGN anlegen können.Dies paßt ausgezeichnet in das Bild der Aufrüstung für den Einsatz von MOPs durch B2-Bomber. Bei den SSGN handelt es sich um Diese umgebaute U-Boote der Ohio-Klasse.Träger von nuklearen Interkontinentalraketen mußten aufgrund von Abrüstungsverträgen außer Dienst gestellt werden und wurden dahingehend umgebaut, daß sie nun 66 Froschmänner der US-Eliteeinheit Navy Seals an ihr Ziel bringen können. Außerdem sind sie mit bis zu 154 Marschflugkörpern des Typs Tomahawk ausgestattet.Einmal mehr wird hier nur zu deutlich, daß die USA bereits inmitten der Vorbereitungen für einen Angriffskrieg gegen den Iran sind. Weder Navy Seals noch Marschflugkörper oder MOPs dürften im Irak und in Afghanistan derzeit auch nur von geringstem strategischen Nutzen sein.

  • Specifications
    Weight, total 13,600 kg [slightly less than 30,000 pounds]
    Weight, explosive 2,700 kg [6,000 lb] "over 5,300 pounds"
    Length 6 m / 20.5 feet long
    Diameter 31.5-inch diameter
    Control short-span wings and trellis-type tail
    Penetration 60 meters [200 feet] through 5,000 psi reinforced concrete
    40 meters [125 feet] through moderately hard rock
    8 meters [25 feet] through 10,000 psi reinforced concrete
    Contractors Boeing, Northrop Grumman
    Sponsors Air Force Research Laboratory's Munitions Directorate
    Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
    Platforms B-52, B-2
    Guidance GPS aided INS
  • 2005 - Refine MOP concept and begin detailed weapon development and testing
  • 2005 - statically emplaced Proof-of Principle test of payload effectiveness
  • 2006 - static lethality demonstration against hard and deeply buried targets
  • 2006 - scaled penetration and lethality testing
  • 2007 - Conduct Massive Ordnance Penetrator Demonstration
  • 2007 - full-scale performance demonstration against realistic hard and deeply buried targets

  • Bush may strike Iran near end of term 15/05/2007 -  by 
    While arguing that economic sanctions against Teheran still have a chance of bearing fruit, a top strategic expert predicted on Tuesday that the Bush administration could conduct a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities toward the end of its term in office. "I, for one, don't exclude the possibility that the US will act," Shai Feldman, currently director of the Crown Center for Middle East studies at Brandeis University, told an editorial meeting of The Jerusalem Post. "My feeling, though, is that if it will act, it will act in the last months of the administration, mostly because I think that they are inclined to try to give the other options the fullest possible chance." US President George W. Bush, still embroiled in the war in Iraq, would be reluctant to take action against Iran until the the latter part of his term, which concludes on January 20, 2009, Feldman said.  "The paradox of this is that the closer you are to a position of being a lame-duck president, the more freedom of action you have," he said. Feldman, a former head of Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, said he believed that international sanctions were taking their toll on the Iranians. "Right now it seems that the squeeze is not ineffective," he said. "It's not clear at all in my view at this point that the economic sanctions won't work, and I don't mean the formal sanctions by the UN or by the EU, but more the unilateral pressures that the US and key European countries are putting on Iran through the international financial system. "That feeds into lots of discontent within Iran focused on President [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad regarding the economic situation."
    Feldman said a debate is still raging in the US over whether to engage in a dialogue with Iran (as advocated by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice) or continue to isolate it as part of the "axis of evil" (as Vice President Dick Cheney would have it.) "I think that there is incomplete discussion within the US administration on dealing with Iran," he said. "I think there is a monumental debate that is still going on, and it may not be over until January 2009." Sidestepping questions on what Israel should do, he said that while the Iranian issue was always on the table in bilateral talks with the US, this didn't mean that the two countries had synchronized positions. "I think Israel raises this issue with the Americans, and the Americans raise the issue the Israelis, and there is not a JPMG [Joint Political Military Group] meeting in which Iran doesn't come up," he said. "But does this really amount to the two sides coordinating?"
    Coming out in support of a US dialogue with Teheran, Feldman said the American war in Iraq had left Iran "the sole power in the Persian Gulf." Calling himself "a deterrence theorist," he said he was convinced that deterrence could work because there is a clear address in Iran for dialogue, the regime is aware of the costs of war, and it is sensitive to outside forces. "This is not an isolated regime like North Korea and like Saddam was," he said. "It's a regime that's got extremely good sensors and in the past, it has reacted to international pressures." Nevertheless, he added: "If I were the decision-maker, and everything else failed, and if I were presented with a plausible scenario for military interdiction, I would take that action despite my logical analysis that leads me to believe that actually it's more probable than not that we will be able to establish a stable balance of deterrence with Iran." "I would take [the decision] because of the residual uncertainty that my analysis may be wrong.

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    Secret move to upgrade air base for Iran attack plans29th October 2007 By IAN BRUCE, Defence Correspondent   The US is secretly upgrading special stealth bomber hangars on the British island protectorate of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, according to military sources. The improvement of the B1 Spirit jet infrastructure coincides with an "urgent operational need" request for £44m to fit racks to the long-range aircraft. That would allow them to carry experimental 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs designed to smash underground bunkers buried as much as 200ft beneath the surface through reinforced concrete. One MOP - known as Big Blu - has already been tested successfully at the US Air Force proving ground at White Sands in New Mexico. Tenders have now gone out for a production model to be ready for use in the next nine months. The "static tunnel lethality test" on March 14 completely destroyed a mock-up of the kind of underground facility used to house Iran's nuclear centrifuge arrays at Natanz, about 150 miles from the capital, Tehran. Although intelligence estimates vary as to when Iran will achieve the know-how for a bomb, the French government recently received a memo from the International Atomic Energy Agency stating that Iran will be ready to run almost 3000 centrifuges in 18 cascades by the end of this month. That is in defiance of a UN ban on uranium enrichment and would be enough to produce a nuclear weapon within a year. Diego Garcia, part of Britain's Indian Ocean Territory, has several current missions. US Air Force bombers and Awacs surveillance planes operate from its 12,000ft runway and the USAF Space Command has built a satellite tracking station and communications facility. The Ministry of Defence says the US government would need Britain's permission to use the island for offensive action. It has already been used for strategic strike missions during the 1991 and 2003 Gulf wars against Iraq. The UK "sovereign territory" has a garrison of 50 British and 3200 US military personnel. The atoll, the largest in the Chagos Archipelago chain, lies about 1000 miles from the southern coasts of India and Sri Lanka. It is ideally placed for strategic missions in the Middle East. The US Department of Defence request for special bomb racks was hidden in a £95bn request to the US Congress last week for extra emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The new Big Blu bomb is 20ft long, weighs 30,000lb and carries 6000lb of high explosives. It is designed to go deeper than even existing nuclear bunker-busting weapons. The bomb is designed to be dropped from as great a height as possible to achieve maximum velocity and penetrating power, guided on to target by satellite and accurate to within a few feet. Each B2 bomber would be able to carry only one weapon because of its weight. The B2s, normally based at Barksdale, Missouri, flew round-trip strikes against Baghdad in 2003, but would ideally be positioned closer to its targets for missions against Iran. The Pentagon has drawn up contingency plans for a range of attacks on Iran. The likeliest is a five-day bombardment, aiming to disable nuclear facilities and all major airbases and radar facilities; the most devastating would involve air and cruise missile attacks on 1000 targets, including headquarters and barracks of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps, over more than a month. The US branded the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organisation last week in the latest round of diplomatic sanctions against Tehran. 12:16am Monday 29th October 2007  By IAN BRUCE, Defence Correspondent


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