WASHINGTON
Petraeus
has been the prime advocate of Bush's policy of a large troop presence
in Iraq. By naming Petraeus to a job that lasts into the next
administration, Bush ensures that the new president will confront the
military's strongest voice for maintaining a big force in Iraq.
And
Petraeus has emerged as a leading critic of Iran's interference in
Iraq, making his appointment a signal of heightened U.S. attention to
Tehran. His expertise with Iran's military and political
leadership
will allow him to take a more hands-on approach to dealing with the
government.
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Wednesday
that Bush would nominate Petraeus to take over
as chief of U.S. Central
Command, which also oversees Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The job
was left vacant in March when Navy Adm. William J. Fallon stepped down
abruptly after appearing to criticize U.S. policy in the region,
especially in Iran.
At the same time, Gates said, Bush will
nominate Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno to take over Petraeus'
current job as top U.S. commander in Iraq.Odierno had served directly under Petraeus as day-to-day Iraq commander
before stepping down in February.
Like
Petraeus, Odierno has urged that Pentagon leaders and policymakers
approach U.S. troop reductions cautiously to avoid creating gaps in
Iraq's fragile security.
Both men must await Senate
confirmation. Although confirmation hearings will be confrontational,
with Democrats criticizing Bush's war policy, both men are likely to be
approved.
Despite the policy disagreements, Petraeus and Odierno
command wide respect because of their success in reducing the level of
violence in Iraq.
During his time as Iraq commander, Petraeus
has grown steadily more critical of Iran's interference in Iraq's
politics and of its role in contributing to violence.
When he
took command of U.S. forces in Iraq in 2007, Petraeus was surprised at
the extent of Iranian meddling, said some who have worked with him.
During
recent appearances in Washington, Petraeus highlighted "nefarious
activities" by Iran's Quds Force and charged that the unit has armed
Iraqi "special groups" that have killed U.S. troops.
"We should
all watch Iranian actions closely in the weeks and months ahead, as
they will show the kind of relationship Iran wishes to have with its
neighbor," Petraeus told Congress.
But Petraeus also has
displayed a keen understanding of the current Iranian government, and
many said he would approach Tehran with reserve.
"You will find
a very pragmatic general," said Frederick W. Kagan, a scholar at the
American Enterprise Institute who has advised the Bush administration
on its war strategy. "The Iranians won't be happy because they are not
going to be able to feed him nonsense. But he won't be handing anyone
in Washington memos saying, 'It's time to go to war.' "
In his new post, Petraeus will have a chance to solve a problem that,
before now, he and others could only complain about.
"The question is not if Iran is unhelpful in Iraq," said P.J. Crowley,
a retired Air Force colonel and a fellow at the Center for American
Progress. "The question is what to do about it."
Once Bush
leaves office, his successor is free to change his policies. On
Iraq,
the president's most important influence will be through the military
officers he installs in command.
Although top officers will not
set policy themselves, they will be responsible for assessing the war
effort and offering the new president their best advice.
Petraeus
is unlikely to color the advice he gives the next president, even if
the next commander in chief calls for sharp cutbacks in troop levels,
said Conrad Crane, director of the U.S. Army
Military History Institute.
"He
will give his best advice about what he thinks is the right strategy.
He won't shape any recommendations based on the political winds. He
will make his recommendations based on the reality on the ground,"
Crane said
But Petraeus will give that advice in private, Crane
said, and if it is rejected, he will seek to carry out the new
president's policy.
Military officers like Petraeus and Odierno, he said, are used to
changes in administrations.
"They
serve the commander in chief. There will not be any problems," said
William L. Nash, a retired Army major general. "They will give the next
president their best advice, argue their case and then salute when
given their orders."
Richard J. Danzig, secretary of the Navy
under President Clinton and now an advisor to the presidential campaign
of Democrat Barack Obama, praised Petraeus but said the next
administration should weigh his advice against that of others.
"Gen.
Petraeus is particularly capable, and it would be good for any
administration to work with him," Danzig said. "The problem is not that
he is valued; it is that the advice of so many other able military
leaders has been suppressed or ignored by this administration."
In announcing the nominations Wednesday, Gates noted that all military
commanders serve at the pleasure of the president.
"I
was just trying to provide some continuity for a new administration,
but they always have the opportunity to make a change," Gates said.
Still,
military experts consider the act of ousting a top officer unlikely,
arguing that such a move would needlessly politicize the job of war
commander.
In his new job, Petraeus will have
responsibility for
overseeing military operations from the Horn of Africa through the
Persian Gulf to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Oversight of the war in Afghanistan is split
between the U.S. Central Command and NATO.
Afghanistan
will pose an interesting challenge for Petraeus. While U.S. and
NATO
commanders there have been requesting more troops, any additional U.S.
forces for Afghanistan would have to come from Iraq.
"The main
question is will he be willing to see resources shift from Iraq to
Afghanistan?" said Crowley, the retired Air Force colonel, who now
advises the presidential campaign of Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Gates said Wednesday that Petraeus' role in Afghanistan would be
somewhat limited.
But
historian Crane said that as Centcom commander, Petraeus will have
plenty of opportunities to inject new ideas into the Afghanistan fight.
Petraeus knows how to work with allied commanders, and his reputation
will ensure that people listen to his ideas, Crane said.
"This
job will give Gen. Petraeus more of a chance to influence what is going
on in Afghanistan," said Crane, a retired Army colonel who
helped
Petraeus write the Army's 2006 counterinsurgency field manual.
"If
you were someone who thought Afghanistan was in need of a fresh
approach, you should be excited about Gen. Petraeus' appointment."
julian.barnes@latimes.com
Times staff writer Peter Spiegel in Washington contributed to this
report.
Copyright © 2008, The Los Angeles Times